Significance Magazine

There has been much wailing and gnashing of blogs since the dismal performance of the pre-election polls. These had confidently and consistently predicted a rough tie in vote share between Labour and Conservative, but when the votes were counted the Conservatives had a 6.5% lead.

The pre-election estimates of vote-share led May 2015 to predict that Ed Miliband would be the next Prime Minister, and even the Nate Silver approved Electionforecast was predicting only a small Conservative lead in seats, which could be easily outweighed by a formal or informal coalition.